Friday, February 22, 2008

Hillary Clinton: With Michigan and Florida, I have a fighting chance:

From an interview with the Texas Monthly:
I signed an agreement not to campaign in Michigan and Florida. Now, the DNC made the determination that they would not seat the delegates, but I was not party to that. I think it’s important for the DNC to ask itself, Is this really in the best interest of our eventual nominee? We do not want to be disenfranchising Michigan and Florida. We have to try to carry both of those states. I’d love to carry Texas, but it’s usually not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee. Florida and Michigan are.
Interesting remark about Texas usually not in the electoral calculation. In any event, the current totals for the candidates (including superdelegates) is: Obama 1319, Clinton 1250.

Florida + Michigan would bring: Obama 71, Clinton 192, Uncommitted 63.

Add those to the totals and you get: Obama 1390, Clinton 1442, Uncommitted 63.

But the Uncommitted are likely to be for Obama, so put them in his column and you get: Obama 1453, Clinton 1442.

If, and it's a big if, Obama and Clinton split Texas, and Clinton does well in Ohio, you're looking at a close situation, should Clinton get Florida and Michigan into the tally.

ALSO: Upon reflection, it seems that Clinton should have fought hard in Maine. That would have broken up the 11 wins-in-a-row for Obama. Of all the states between Super Tuesday (Feb 5) and March 4, Maine looked best for Hillary. Why didn't they put more of an effort in there?


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