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Friday, February 15, 2008

A possible solution to the delegate problem:

While I'd prefer to see the rules enforced (which would mean not considering Michigan and Florida), that's probably too strict for politics.

Michigan and Florida want to be counted and Clinton is arguing for that, and we keep reading that eventually Howard Dean will seat them, somehow. But that would outrage Obama supporters and lead to division within the party.

One possible solution would be along these lines:
  • Seat the Florida delegates, since that was primary where everyone was on the ballot.
  • Seat only the Uncommitted delegates from Michigan.
In terms of delegates, the allocation based on the elections already held is (or would be):
Florida (210): Hillary (106)   Obama (71)   Edwards (31)   Kucinich (2)
Michigan (156): Uncommitted (63)   Not seated: Hillary (86)   Kucinich (6)   Dodd (1)
The advantages to this scheme are:
  • Neither Florida or Michigan are ignored at the Democratic Convention. (Although Michigan has 63 instead of 156, kind of like the half-delegates penalty the Republicans use.)

  • The Clinton, Kucinich, and Dodd campaigns are punished for not removing their names from the Michigan ballot. Punish the candidates, not the entire state.

  • The 63 Uncommitted from Michigan will be strongly inclined to support Obama. Say he gets 75% of them. That would result in a Michigan+Florida delegate count of: Hillary (106+15 = 121)   Obama (71+48 = 119). The near-identical delegate totals means that adding Florida and only Michigan's Uncommitted allows both states "to count", aligns nicely with the near-even national delegate numbers, and isn't favorable to either candidate.
What do you think?



4 comments

Genius!

By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2/16/2008 1:36 AM  

Another solution:

New primaries with the Democratic Party picking-up the tab.

By Anonymous Rockie the Dog, at 2/16/2008 9:08 AM  

I think this is a great solution. Let's throw out the votes of the people who voted for Hillary Clinton and seat the others. But I think that you are wrong with respect to Florida. The traditional way to win the election when you can't get the popular vote, (a real risk for Our Obama) is to insist that the Electoral College (or the arcane Delegate selection process) is the will of the people. And not count Florida.

After all Kerry won Michigan by about 165K. If we throw out the 300K Hillary voters, that might just do the trick in November.

By Blogger marc, at 2/18/2008 8:50 AM  

Lock them out.

It's that simple. If you fail to lock them out, then in four years you will have two dozen states pushing ahead of super Tuesday.

By Blogger J.Goodwin, at 2/19/2008 1:14 PM  

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