The debt ceiling hostage crisis was a political catastrophe for both Obama and Congressional Republicans. He came away looking weak. they came away looking crazy. The episode, though, had more than political ramifications. It had economic ramifications. Confidence in the economy -- the number one conservative explanation for economic weakness -- took a real and justified plunge.

The Republicans pursued a strategy that torpedoed the economic recovery, and, indeed, may well bring about a double-dip recession. Voters may punish House republicans at the polls in 2012, but they're at least as likely to punish Obama. That Republicans may gain the White House on the shoulders of a Republican-induced recession offers lessons about the incentive structure of our divided system of government that are frightening to contemplate.