Remember this: CONFIRMATION OF LONG-TERM TRENDS REQUIRE LONG-TERM DATA

All this arguing about what did or did not happen in the last 10 years is a waste of time. Kevin Drum vs Jim Manzi is sort of interesting, if you like to get deep into the statics of noisy data, but it's a diversion.

For the last century, carbon emissions, CO2 atmospheric content, and temperatures have gone up. The generally accepted view is that they are all related, and until carbon emission stop, the trend will continue. Looking at a small segment of the data (for any time period) to argue that temperatures have stalled in their upward trajectory is discounting the long-term model. If people want to discount the long-term model, then they will have to come up with compelling long-term data that makes the case. Such long-term data does not exist (so far). So don't waste your time with arguments from folks like George Will about what happened in the last decade.


posted by Quiddity at 7/24/2009 03:36:00 PM