Saturday, October 25, 2008
Early voting distortion effect?
There's a lot of early voting going on, and much of it seems to be by Obama supporters. If that's the case, won't that make the exit-polling on November 4 tilt more to McCain, leading to some early (and wrong) preditions of a Republican win in some states more likely?
Depends on how pro-active Obama voters are. McCain supporters seem to have quite a passion for their candidate as well, so if both sets of voters are comparably motivated, early voting seems to favor Obama come Nov 4.
If McCain supporters are more pro-active, then the distortion will also favor Obama on election day.
McCain supporters seem to have quite a passion for their candidate as well
Their only passion is a white-hot hatred of Obama. Most conservatives despise McCain, and they always have.
That white-hot hatred is for socialism. Obama is merely the standard-bearer. If Obama were moderate or conservative, conservatives would love him. Just as if Palin were a liberal, she would be a Democratic superstar.
Gallup claims that early voting is split evenly between registered Democrats and registered Republicans.
Of course, Gallup has no way of knowing whether these party-registered voters are voting their party or crossing over ...
That white-hot hatred is for socialism
Most Americans under the age of 40 don't even know what socialism is.
A significant portion of the electorate won't vote for an African-American, regardless of ideology.