Saturday, October 25, 2008

Early voting distortion effect?

There's a lot of early voting going on, and much of it seems to be by Obama supporters. If that's the case, won't that make the exit-polling on November 4 tilt more to McCain, leading to some early (and wrong) preditions of a Republican win in some states more likely?


Depends on how pro-active Obama voters are. McCain supporters seem to have quite a passion for their candidate as well, so if both sets of voters are comparably motivated, early voting seems to favor Obama come Nov 4.

If McCain supporters are more pro-active, then the distortion will also favor Obama on election day.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10/25/2008 5:59 AM  

McCain supporters seem to have quite a passion for their candidate as well

Their only passion is a white-hot hatred of Obama. Most conservatives despise McCain, and they always have.

By Anonymous Screamin' Demon, at 10/25/2008 12:43 PM  

That white-hot hatred is for socialism. Obama is merely the standard-bearer. If Obama were moderate or conservative, conservatives would love him. Just as if Palin were a liberal, she would be a Democratic superstar.

By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10/25/2008 4:34 PM  

Gallup claims that early voting is split evenly between registered Democrats and registered Republicans.

Of course, Gallup has no way of knowing whether these party-registered voters are voting their party or crossing over ...

By Anonymous jms, at 10/26/2008 8:57 AM  

That white-hot hatred is for socialism

Most Americans under the age of 40 don't even know what socialism is.

A significant portion of the electorate won't vote for an African-American, regardless of ideology.

By Anonymous Screamin' Demon, at 10/26/2008 3:05 PM  

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