Early prediction:Sure, anything can happen and several key events are in the future (debates, press encounters, economy/war news), but the way things stand today after both conventions, it looks like Obama will win pretty easily (5% margin nationwide, 50 point advantage in the EC).
Obama has problems due to racism in the electorate and his slim resume. But he and Biden look competent and vigorous. The Palin selection is a pure base-energizer (and her personal appeal may be overrated) and McCain is starting to look tired and old (and short, which may be unfair but still is a negative). The Repubican ticket is way unbalanced. Palin is too young. McCain doesn't seem to be able to "connect" with voters on kitchen table issues. There is no rapport between McCain and Palin - did you see them on the stage after McCain's speech?
Anyway, this is my prediction. And I say that as someone genuinely concerned about a tight race just five days ago. But things seem to have clarified, especially as to Palin's strength and McCain's political skills.
posted by Quiddity at 9/05/2008 11:57:00 AM
You're coming around, Quiddity. I've been saying all along that Obama's gonna beat McCain like a rented mule.
It won't be a landslide, but it'll be by a percentage high enough that the Republicans can't steal it this time.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people.
Also, as some smart bloggers have pointed out, Obama really needs to stay on the issues battleground. It's not that he can't win on the personality/personal history battleground, but it's pretty unfavorable.
Thus, he needs to stress issues, and keep repeated the 90% mantra.
I wrote, "It's not that he can't win on the personality/personal history battleground, but it's pretty unfavorable."
I meant "unpredictable," not "unfavorable."
