Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Tidal wave in November?
The win by a Democrat in Mississippi's special election is substantial. What will the Republicans do in the wake of that? What message do they have? It would seem that finally, the glories of an unregulated market and a minimal safety-net have faded. It's hard to see what kind of ecomomic platform they can come up with that will be attractive to voters. Not that ecomomics was their strong suit, but it will be determinative this fall.
And talking up foreign affairs or various "patriotic" themes just makes them seem out of touch. So what can they do?
what will they do?
Continue to screw up the country so badly that it's nearly impossible to fix, and will require some politically unpalatable choices, which they will refuse to do while in office. Put in place a few poison pills for the Dems who follow them, to boot.
In November, hunker down and weather the electoral storm.
In January, immediately crank up the Wurlitzer and scream fanatically about any measures necessary to clean up their mess.
Lather, rinse, repeat for the rest of out damned lives.
I'd bet on the Leiberman strategy:
Bankroll a Clinton vanity-run as an independent, hope that the resulting chaos within the Democratic party will allow you to hold the white house and the reigns of the war gravy train.
What will the Republicans do in the wake of that?
Republican Talking Points For Fall 2008:
In no particular order...
Taxes/Welfare State, Terrorism, Gay Marriage, Abortion, Gun Rights, Immigration, Crazy Black Pastor.
They may get slaughtered in Congressional races but this will likely be enough to put McCain in the White House.
Actually, if they're smart they'll just conceed. Let Obama win and blame him for failing to fix all the problems caused by the Bush administration.
Right now the Democratic primary is attractive and exciting. It's got democrats heavily invested in politics right now. Republican voters are in a political lull -- the GOP candidate is decided, and it would be pointless to compete with the Democratic Circus until the Democratic primary is completed and they have a definite adversary.
I think that the Democrats have pulled a few quick stunners by simply having a much bigger turnout due to the increased interest in the Democratic primary. That doesn't translate into a tidal wave in November. Even if they blew off the special election, Republicans can be expected to vote in the general election.