Friday, May 09, 2008

Churning through the stats:

[Regarding what Atrios said.] Hillary Clinton this week:
“Because for too long we have let places like West Virginia slip out of the Democratic column and you know it is a fact that no Democratic president has ever won the White House since 1916 without winning West Virginia.”
Okay. Because she said "since 1916", that excludes 1916 when Woodrow Wilson won (but didn't carry West Virginia). Because she said "no Democratic president", that excludes 1920, 1924, 1928, 1952, 1952, 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, and 2004. So it's Roosevelt (4 times), Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Carter, and Clinton (2).

Going through the records, the following states always went Democratic when a Democrat won the presidency (since 1916):
  • Massachusetts (primary won by Clinton)
  • Minnesota (caucus won by Obama)
  • Missouri (primary won by Obama)
  • Rhode Island (primary won by Clinton)
  • West Virginia
Whoopee! There's nothing interesting here. If anything, Missouri's orientation in the general election correlates better with the national result. But that has nothing to do with primaries results. Hillary Clinton's "argument" is nugatory.


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