The high twenties:

A few months ago there was speculation about how low Bush's approval could go. One theory was that it couldn't drop below 27 percent. Reason? Because that was the percentage that Alan Keyes got in the Illinois Senate election of 2004. The reasoning was if Keyes, a hard-right weirdo with next to no government experience coming from out of state, could get that proportion of the vote, it exposed the solid core of support for the Republican agenda.

And now we have a new number. From CNN: (emp add)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A majority of Americans consider waterboarding a form of torture ...

Asked whether they think waterboarding is a form of torture, more than two-thirds of respondents, or 69 percent, said yes; 29 percent said no.

Earlier this year (March, before the deadly Apr-June period) a USAToday/Gallup poll had this:

WASHINGTON — A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows deepening pessimism on Iraq, even as many Americans are reluctant to limit money or troops for the war effort.

Only 28% say the United States will probably or definitely win the war, down from 35% in December and the lowest since the question was first asked in September 2005.

27%, 29%, 28%.

These numbers can rise or fall by 5%, depending on the situation, but there appears to be a pretty solid conservative core that is in the high twenties.

In 1974 when Nixon was in big trouble, Time magazine looked at his remaining supporters and asked, "Who are the 25%?" (25 being Nixon's support level)

These people weren't necessarily religious, social, or cultural conservatives. They were political conservatives. Or, to use John Dean's characterization, "authoritarians". Interestingly, they consider themselves patriots, even though they are woefully ignorant of the founding principles of this country (Habeas corpus, restraining executive aggrandizement during war). They are tough political opponents. They'll use propaganda, character assassination, the power of the state (when they have it) to harass opponents, and try to steal elections. Because they are authoritarians. Power is all that matters, not persuasion or compromise. They don't care about public approval except to the extent that it's necessary to win elections, and then it's mosly obfuscation and rarely-honored promises to a core subset such as the religious right. They love the Senate and Electoral College because it makes it easier to attain power without majority approval (2000 Presidential vote). Once they get the power, it's time for cronies to get on board the gravy train and vanity projects are undertaken, like the Iraq War. It's bad for the country: money is wasted and important issues are ignored. Eventually the country gets into trouble - usually financially.

But even as the ship of state is listing, the authoritarians refuse to give up. In fact, their prescription is for more authoritarianism. More, more, more.

And we've seen a taste of that with the Republican presidential debates. Romney wanting to double Guantanamo. Rudy's ultra-neocon advisors. Et al.

This triumph of authoritarianism happens throughout history and eventually it fades from the scene, only to return decades later. But there are ways of minimizing its occurrence: tradition (including professionalism within the executive), government structure (checks & balances), and an aggressive press, can restrain the authoritarian impulse. Unfortunately, in the last 20 years in the United States, there has been a diminution of these restraints on power. Some of it is the conservative tilt of the press. Some of it is money in politics. Some of it is lack of leadership by the opposition. Some of it is a lazy electorate.

Eventually the situation gets so bad that everyone sits up and takes notice, and the hard work of setting things right begins.


posted by Quiddity at 11/06/2007 06:13:00 AM