This is not progress:
Now that the numbers
are in for May, we can plot the average-monthly-casualties-for-the-duration (maroon line). It keeps on going up.
Actually, I'd give it another day or two before I'd say the numbers are complete for May.
Graph shows the first sixth month period where the casualties have exceeded 80 or more for each of those months.
Of course we can not make any decisions on progress until another 6 months (F.U.) pass by. Talk to me in December.
The trouble is that you are using the "reality based" definition of the word progress and that is just not the right way to be analysing the situation.