How much longer can the Iraqis take it?Forget Haditha for the moment. Right now there are daily shootings of Shia or Sunnis throughout Iraq. People are being dragged out of cars and buses, separated on the basis of religion, and shot or let go. Day after day this goes on. It's stunning and sad.
It would seem that the response to this would be self-segration. A Shia in a Sunni-dominant region would leave for a Shia city. The reverse for a Sunni. Wouldn't you do that?
But perhaps the demographics are such that there is such a co-mingling at the present time that there is no place to go (or very few). What then? Perhaps you just stay at home being
real quiet, doing the absolute minimum to get by until some sort of clarity emerges. Such a strategy is being followed by many in Iraq. But that's a temporary solution that awaits a permanent fix.
But back to the issue of consolidation for safety. It would seem to be inevitable since the government doesn't have much control over things. If tensions reach a level where a mass exodus starts to take place, you can expect lots of violence until everybody is where they want to be. It could be like what happened during the
partition of India, when Muslims and Hindus went on rampages, often killing those simply trying to get to safety. (Numbers vary, but half a million killed is a
common estimate.)
The comparison with India isn't quite right. India had many more people, but at least they had clearly defined places to go to (Kashmir excepted). If the Shia and Sunni "territories" are unspecified and fluid, that could make it a much bloodier affair. Or will someone step in (US? UN?) and guide the process to minimize conflict?
For years this blog was reluctant to think that a breakup of Iraq would take place - as some experts predicted. But maybe it will happen after all.
posted by Quiddity at 6/04/2006 06:11:00 PM
I believe the greatest co-mingling is in Bagdad.
Separation of the country in three (Shia, Sunni, and Kurds) would work if done properly but you know that won't be the way it's done. There would have to be firm agreement on the sharing of water and oil. By firm, I meant rock-solid...all the details worked out in advance.
There is also the problem of the instability that a Kurd republic would serve-up to Turkey (our NATO ally).
On a bigger issue: All of the daily violence, the repression in the south, the Haditha massacre (which is worse than for what they have Saddam on trial) will put an end to the lie that we are there to establish democracy.
So, WMD's and ties to Bin Laden have been put to rest. And now the democracy bit. Which leaves us with: oil, they tried to assasinate daddy, and making the world safe for Israel.
I think we eliminate oil. Saddam was more than happy to sell it to us and now the flow has stopped.
So which is it. have we spend vast sums of American lives and treasure because the bad man tried to assasinate daddy or for Israel.
I don't see any movement towards a breakup. What Iraq is now experiencing is more like the mother of all crime waves, mostly courtesy of Iran.
Ideally the Iranian people overthrow their government and choke off the Iranian-governmental sponsored violence at its root.
If there's one thing that the Iraqi people fully understand, it is that the entire purpose of the violence is to induce a breakup of Iraq, and expand the Iranian empire -- Iran being the the real imperialists in this war.
