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Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Election 2006 - a pessimist's view:

The Republicans are going to campaign on the theme of Perpetual War (against "Terror").
Bush facilitates this by planning of having troops in Iraq for as long as he's president. As bad as things get in Iraq, the U.S. is still very strong in conventional military terms and won't suffer a Battle of Dien Bien Phu. They won't be forced out.
Arguing about exit plans is a loser for Democrats. Trying to win elections on national defense and foreign policy issues while there is a war on is extremely difficult. The party in power usually has an advantage, and this is even more the case since Republicans have cornered the market on emotional symbols, patriotism, and other base emotions (which war taps into quite effectively).
Given the contours of the media:
- No serious discussion in any policy area will succeed in persuading voters - it'll be ignored or drowned out with tabloid trivia.
- Ann Coulter and her ilk will be given plenty of noncritical exposure. It's not that Coulter changes people's minds. It's more that she crowds out other more sensible voices and moves the boundaries of discourse further to the right.
- Millionaire pundits will continue their softball coverage of Republicans.
The public are disenfranchised through the old-time Gerrymandered representation, along with mischief the new voting machines bring and voter list purges / registration-obstacle courses set up by Republicans. Having 51% of the voters on your side isn't enough to change control of Congress.

Reform will not be achieved by having the electorate agree with a progressive message and vote accordingly.

Reform will only come about when the Democrats attain power in Congress (and perhaps later, the White House).

The Democrats will return to power only if there is an economic downturn that forces out the Republicans.

An economic downturn sharp enough to make a difference may happen this year. But it may not come soon enough, and the situation could be not so bad in November that the Republicans retain their hold in Washington.

posted by Quiddity at 6/21/2006 12:47:00 PM

4 comments

Quiddity, I'd say you're being optimistic.

You're assuming there actual will be free elections in November and they won't simply be Diebolded.

By kelley b., at 6/21/2006 5:53 PM

The upshot of this is that the cart is clearly careening down a steep, narrow mountain path and should eventually fly over the edge of a cliff. Why not let the Republicans be steering when this happens?

By Anonymous, at 6/22/2006 8:33 AM

It's not that Coulter changes people's minds.

But she does -- she started slinging her "liberals (and only liberals) trot out uncriticizable spokespeople" line and people's minds were converted immediately. Of course, those people had names like Howard Kurtz and Jake Tapper. But they then went on to repeat her talking point verbatim -- and now it's become conventional wisdom in less than a month.

Apart from that, I agree with your pessimism -- and I think the situation is even worse than you do, because I think the GOP will be successful in turning illegal immigrants into the new gay-people-who-want-to-marry (and in making the Democrats the party of illegals, despite their own president's stance).

By Steve M., at 6/22/2006 9:16 AM

Trying to win elections on national defense and foreign policy issues while there is a war on is extremely difficult.

This is one thing I don't understand about political analysts featured in the mainstream media: they don't control for things like this.

Anyone sensible would look at e.g. Kerry vs Bush and say, "OK, Kerry lost, but how well did he do controlling for the fact that he was running against an incumbant while a war was on?"

(Not that I think Kerry was a stellar campaigner.)

By Anonymous, at 6/26/2006 2:14 AM