Wednesday, April 05, 2006
Iran - a tempting target:Over at TPM, Steve Clemons excerpts a Nelson Report that discusses the various approaches to Iran, including the military option. Of interest are these observations: (emp add) In the past few days, Teheran has bragged about a 220 mph torpedo, a missile that apparently Superman couldn't track, a flying-boat invisible to all but God, and no doubt other super-weapons ready and waiting to hit Gulf Oil shipping, US troops and bases, and Israel. . .not to mention Turkey, Jordan, and anyone else deemed helpful to the US in any way.
The thrust of the Telegraph article is that the Brits think President Bush operates on an entirely different logic set, and that Bush is, indeed, prepared to use military means against Iran ...
If one has a limited imagination, there IS a rational case for striking sooner, rather than risk being "too late", and some of our sources are willing to speculate that President Bush has been told (or WILL be told) that the US can easily sink the Iranian navy in a day or two, and also effectively counter Iranian anti-ship missiles aimed at oil tankers in the Gulf, as in the '80's. How strong is Iran's military? Take a look at this graphic from the Telegraph. Iran looks mighty weak, especially in terms of their conventional weaponry. And their Navy: - 3,000 marines
- 6 submarines
- 3 frigates
Wow! Attacking Iran is probably a major mistake, but considering how weak their military is on paper, it's likely to make Bush and his advisors feel more comfortable about a strike.
posted by Quiddity at 4/05/2006 08:44:00 AM
6 comments
Remember this Pentagon war game?
The Guardian - Sept 6, 2002 - ...Van Riper had at his disposal a computer-generated flotilla of small boats and planes, many of them civilian...Chinese Silkworm-type cruise missiles fired from some of the small boats sank the US fleet's only aircraft carrier and two marine helicopter carriers....Sixteen ships were sunk altogether, along with thousands of marines...
Note that while their navy isn't too strong, they have for their army 350,000 regular and 250,000 conscripts.
We have only about 150,000 troops in Iraq.
Attacking Iran is no problem but invading and occupying Iran will be next to impossible. I won't be surprised to see us lob a few cruise missles into Iran... do a few 'surgical' air strikes, but forget about a full scale invasion. Ain't gonna happen.
Compared to what you mentioned about Irans Navy, I think Iraq had all of two PT boats, tops.
Air strikes should not be too much of a problem. The trend of verbal builds for a strike have as their common thread that Iran is enriching U for bombs. I have yet to read that Iran has confirmed that meme, leaving me to believe that, for now, it is propaganda.
With Irans topography, a quick ground incursion would be wishful thinking.
So, Bushie thinking (wouldn't that be nice if it included logic) would seem to indicate that Bush&Co wants to bomb Iran back a few levels of technology in the direction of the stone age, effectively deferring the problem to the next administration.
Grabbin' my ankles and moanin' for the day when Bush leaves office! (If he ever accepts 'input' that he should).
"Attacking Iran is probably a major mistake, but considering how weak their military is on paper, it's likely to make Bush and his advisors feel more comfortable about a strike."
You might want to get up to speed on this Quiddy. The Iranians have an unknown number of Russian "Sunburn" cruise missiles which are considered to be 10 years more advanced than ours. We literally have NO defense against them and they could concivably block the Strait of Hormuz with the burning hulks of American Navy ships, stopping the flow of oil from there and nuking our economy. Iran is much more formidable than you seem to realize, with a great deal of military experience and the ability to take a hit and still keep fighting (they lost a mllion soldiers in the Iran-Iraq war). Our own military is getting mighty threadbare at this point and probably couldn't take on Iran along with what would happen in Iraq if we did.
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