Turning point in Iraq?The bombing of the Askariya shrine in Samarra looks to be a very serious development. At this early stage, it's not easy to see if it will lead to out-and-out civil war, but it could. While an immediate shift to civil war (in terms of hours) is unlikely, what happens over the next week or so should be watched closely. Right now, voices are calling for restraint. But if tempers flare, we could see substantial bloodshed.
That said, there are some interesting questions that don't have any answers at the moment:
- Who planned the demolition of the shrine, and why? It looks like an attack on the Shiites, but are the Sunnis really up for a fight? They are substantially outnumbered in the country. It doesn't make sense.
- Related: If there is going to be a fight, who'se got the weapons and the organization? Who would lead the Shiites? Sistani and al-Sadr have both called for restraint (though this is a fast-moving story and their positions may change). And what have the Sunnis got up their sleeve? Not artillery or tanks. Is this going to be a civil war with rifles and grenades?
- What is the U.S. going to do about it? Who is running the country? Reports from late last year seemed to indicate that the U.S. was basically out of touch and staying inside safe zones. Are those troops unable to quell domestic unrest?
It's all confusing.
posted by Quiddity at 2/23/2006 12:42:00 AM
See the title of your next post.
It's been more than just a head scratcher that religeous types would blow up mosques. Sort of like Baptists blowing up Presbyterians. However there is a group in the middle east that has a motto - "By way of deception..."
This looks like a natural for the CIA (using home grown recruits). Now Shiites kill Sunnis, Sunnis kill Shiites. Meanwhile nobody kills US troops and all the explosives they would have been using on pipelines and IEDs goes towards blowing up Mosques and markets.
Just watch the monthly stats on attacks on coalition forces and see if it drops....
Blowing up each others houses of worship is nothing new (look no further than the KKK burning "black" churches)and Sunna vs. Shia can be as nasty (even without sinister politics involved)
Swatopluk
