Why are Bush's poll numbers bad?Everybody is saying that the reason for Bush's bad poll numbers is: Iraq, Iraq, and Iraq (Stephanopolous, Russert, et al). But is it?
By any objective standard, the last 12 months in Iraq have been bettern than the previous 12 months. In the previous 12, there was Abu Ghraib, two months where over 130 soldiers were killed, and the Madrid bombing. In the last 12, we've seen two elections and a constitution drafted. So far, the American public as a whole has not been called to sacrifice (with a tax surcharge like Johnson did, or with a draft). Yes, January '05 was deadly (107 killed) and London was hit in the summer, but overall, it's hard to see how anybody could consider the situation in Iraq over the last year to be worse than the previous period.
So what gives?
We think the reason Bush's approval has dropped is due to a number of factors (including Iraq), but that the most significant reason is that Bush doesn't "care about people like me."
Via
Majikthise, we learn of a
chart/analysis over at Political Arithmetic, which shows a steady decline starting from the beginning of 2005.
What was Bush doing back then? Going on the road to campaign for his proposal to eliminate Social Security.
That's what did him in.
[Katrina and Libby pulled him down further, but he was touching 40% before those events.]
posted by Quiddity at 11/14/2005 11:15:00 AM
Iraq, by visibly disproving the throwing-roses and then the light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel propaganda, didn't need to get worse to hurt Bush. The lack of contrast with the sadly uncharismatic and MSM-disliked Kerry also hurt him. But basically the country doesn't like Bush and his job ratings have always fallen outside of individual events like 9/11 or Saddam's capture that buoyed him briefly.
I also think that the regular Joe's out there are just starting to catch up with those of us that have been on the case since day one. If you look at popular culture, anti-Bush and anti-Iraq messages are definitely more prevalent now that last year at this time. I think the message being pounded on in various blogs, etc is seeping into places that these regular , Bush votin' people see. Like Boston Legal. Recently my dad called me all excited about there being a couple of shows with very liberal slants about the Iraq war.
Also, look at the election in CA. I think the message that Republicans don't give a shit about working people is really starting to get out there.
I have never understood why Bush's failure in regards to 9/11 gave him high approval ratings. I must admit, I was among the 10% or so who thought he was doing a lousy job every day he sat in Al Gore's office.
