Certain:

We haven't been reading everything on the subject of Avian Flu, but up until now, had the impression that the threat of a pandemic was substantial. Substantial enough to warrant preparations. But nothing was guaranteed to happen.

Not too long ago there was a report in the New York Times which listed reasons why there might not be a human pandemic. Differences between the 1918 Spanish Flu - mostly related to WWI or its aftermath. Technical issues about the virus proteins. Statements to the effect that if it was going to happen, it should have happened by now. So the situation seemed indeterminate.

But today, in an ABC News story about whether or not the flu can be eliminated from poultry (answer: they don't know), we read this line:

Experts agree a global flu epidemic is certain, but it is unknown when that will occur, whether the H5N1 strain will be the culprit or how deadly the pandemic will be.

So, now it's certain. But what does that mean, exactly?

It's virtually certain that from now to eternity there will be one global flu epidemic. They can't mean that. It's gotta be that there will be an epidemic centered around the existing Avian Flu in terms of time and biology. Time, meaning the next couple of years? Biology, meaning something of H5N1 was part of the evolution of the infectious agent.

If that's the case, we are about to witness a major historical event - like one of the top ten in a given century.

Hang on to your hats.

[NOTE: We've referred to it as Avian Flu, but from a quick scan of the news headlines, it looks like Bird Flu is the popular expression by a 3-to-1 margin.]
posted by Quiddity at 11/08/2005 06:29:00 PM