Friday, July 08, 2005
How not to fight terrorism: - Ignore warnings (e.g. "Bin Laden determined to strike").
- After a major strike (9/11) and with the whole world behind you, don't go all out and capture the terrorist leadership.
- Destabilize a regime (Iraq) that was not hospitable to the terrorists, turning it into an 'open country' where terrorists can at a minimum, find refuge.
- Don't secure massive amounts of weaponry in the destablized country.
- Focus on defense (security checks) instead of offense (capturing the leadership).
- Think that an "Ideology of Hope" (democratic Iraq) will trounce an "Ideology of Hate" - as Condoleezza Rice did today.
At the present time Al Qaeda has limited tools at its disposal: truck bombs, conventional explosives, and suicide bombers. Even so, there is virtually no way to prevent an attack on soft targets - and there are millions of soft targets. As it stands, a defensive strategy is moderately helpful, but it's not the way to insure citizens are protected from more deadly weapons (chem, bio). The proper thing to do is to go after the terrorist leadership and membership. That requires special ops, cloak and dagger, deals with unsavory countries, infiltration of terrorist groups, and the like. One thing for sure, a conventional and undermanned invasion of an Arab country that wasn't supporting Al Qaeda, doesn't do anything to improve the security of this country (and other countries as well). Bush said at one point today that he was going to get the culprits. He's had almost four years, and failed to do so. It's our guess that this attack, close enough (culturally) to the U.S., will be seen as a virtual attack on the U.S. It's our view that if a second attack takes place in this country, especially with the Iraq War as a backdrop, many people will hold Bush accountable for failing to capture the Al Qaeda leadership. That said, we acknowledge that on the right-wing radio, many callers are saying that the way to fight London bombers is to redouble our efforts in Iraq. So not everybody will blame Bush.
posted by Quiddity at 7/08/2005 12:15:00 AM
11 comments
"It's our view that if a second attack takes place in this country, especially with the Iraq War as a backdrop, many people will hold Bush accountable for failing to capture the Al Qaeda leadership."
Sounds like wishful thinking to me. A majority of Americans were (and remain) far, far too stupid to connect Bush to his abject failure to actually deal with Al Qaeda. Indeed, a majority of Americans are intellectually unable to connect Bush with ANY of his manifest failures. Hence the November election results.
Worse, goaded on by talk radio and the pinhead posturing of the preznit, most Americans will clamor for more bombing in Iraq, more secret detentions, more torture--more of everything that has proven conclusively counter-productive.
Derelict
Why is the conventional wisdom that we have to do "deals with unsavory countries?" What does this mean? That we're really okay with people being boiled? Aren't repressive regimes part of the problem in the creation of terrorists, even though at time they seem to be able to keep them in check?
patrick:
One thing at a time. If it means bribing or looking the other way for a year or two in order to capture the Al Qaeda leadership, then I'd do it. After that you can press for changes with unsavory countries. It's a simple matter of priorities. I don't like making nice with Pakistan or Uzbekistan, but if you restrict yourself to allies who are upstanding and moral, you may very well never eliminate some threats.
quiddity:
Are you aware that China, Russsia ans the five former soviet stans are memebers of a defiense alliance and that they have been asked us to leave Uzbelistan and Kyrgizistan? We have declined, in case you were wondering.
You should add to this...
- Install democracy without challenging extremist Islamic ideas, allowing Islamic extremists to gain power and spread their ideology with democratic legitimacy.
Dealing with repressive regimes has an unpleasant tendency to backfire, as noted here in comments, and it has the added side effect of undercutting our loudly self-extolled pretensions to being defenders of truth and freedom.
But you're right that not everyone will blame Bush. In fact, they are actively defending him, and the solution, according to LGF, is apparently pretty similar to the Final One.
Quiddity,
A year or two? We've already been looking the other way much longer than that, and it shows no signs of stopping EVER. 5, 10 years from now we will still be dealing with Karimov, Musharaf, etc or their equivalents. They are clearly part of the problem, not the solution.
On this point, I'd actually be happy with Bush if his rhetoric was realized.
Excellent post. Unfortunately some right wing partisan with the analytical skills of a third-grader is now going to accuse you of being part of the "blame America first crowd." There is no limit to how far such right wingers can shove their head into the sand in order to avoid simple truths that conflict with their ideology. I'm thinking Republicans should change the symbol of their party from an elephant to an ostrich with its head in the sand.
Quiddity: Not to be an ass, but 9/11 changed that. At least before Iraq...
After 9/11 we had the ability to call Pakistan and say "here is how it's going to work and we're not asking, we're telling you." We could have done that same with Uzbekistan, et al. We had the high ground. We had the support of pretty much the entire world. We were a superpower for cryin' out loud!
I understand all that is lost, for the foreseeable future. But I don't want us to forget that it was the right way and we had a chance. I know it sounds like I'm crying over spilt milk, the genie out of the bottle and all the other metaphors for fucking up royally...perhaps because I am.
Still, the fucker boiled a person.
Actually, "after having the full support of countries all over the globe behind you, stick it back in their faces and say: 'No Thanks!'"
That's the way to run things. Oh, and then when you DO need their help, insult them even more...
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