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Sunday, April 03, 2005

New Pope:

Just some thoughts. The electoral procedure has been modified such that a determined minority can prevent the election of a consensus - and therefore moderate - pope. If after a while, no candidate can get a 2/3rds majority, a simple majority will be the standard. It looks as if there is a determined conservative minority, and that they will resist electing a compromise candidate until the rule change. At that point, either a conservative or a liberal pope could be elected, but most likely a conservative. If it is a conservative pope, look for further alienation of the Vatican from Europe and North America.

What name will the next pope choose? We're betting on John Paul III. If,however, he chooses Pius XIII, then expect major fireworks.

posted by Quiddity at 4/03/2005 09:50:00 PM

6 comments

Pope John Paul George?

By Anonymous, at 4/04/2005 7:25 AM

Um, doesn't the rule mean that a determined minority can't hold out forever and oppose a liberal/moderate pope?

If it is a minority, it will still be a minority when a simple majority is required.

By Anthony, at 4/04/2005 12:43 PM

social security number

By Anonymous, at 4/05/2005 7:33 AM

I thought they were guided by the Holy Spirit and didn't take into account such petty human ideas as liberal/conservative. Geez, if the cardinals are political does that mean the church is bogus? I'm shocked!

By Charles D, at 4/05/2005 9:48 AM

Anthony,

The traditional election of the Pope generally followed one of two routes: 1) There is an obvious choice (by piety or bribery) and the election lasts a couple ballots max, or 2) either there is no obvious choice or multiple big egos fight over the post, in which case the conclave last forever and finally in a desperate attempt to not live the rest of their lives looking at all those naked women on the ceiling, the Cardinals compromise on some middle-of-the-road Pope.

The super-majority aids the election of a compromise Pope disinclined to radically shift the Church's positions because the minority of hard-line hold-outs know they are going to sit in the Sistine Chapel for possibly years (it has happened). The knowledge that you can force it down to 50+1 within 2 weeks means there is little reason not to hold out and try to sway enough others for your guy.

For instance, the front runners this time appear to be frothing reactionaries. They will probably split the "Return to the Burning of Heretics and Ruling as Lords of Creation" wing into sub-majority factions. Under old rules, the threat of indefinite confinement could lead to the eventual elevation of some moderate candidate they would all hate equally, because they would rather hand power to a milquetoast for a couple years than let one of their rivals get power (again, it has happened many times), hoping said rival will kick the bucket in the meantime. Now, you simply force it to a majority and lobby like hell to get your particular flavor of Torquemada declared Pontiff. There aren't enough liberal/moderate Cardinals after JP2's court-packing to seriously push for a moderate without the threat of indefinite incarceration, and sooner or later enough will cave just to get it over with.

By Anonymous, at 4/06/2005 10:16 AM

ahem.
His eminence, Guido Sarduce

By Anonymous, at 4/06/2005 12:40 PM