Visualize this:

Reader Mark alerts us to a superb visual representation by Simon Woodside of Bush's National Guard service. We are very impressed.



posted by Quiddity at 9/11/2004 09:19:00 AM

Here we go again:

The Alger Hiss case - 1948:

The defense did not mount a challenge to the prosecution’s contention that the Baltimore documents had been typed on the machine that had been owned by the Hiss family...

...experts testified that the homely machine brought into court as a defense exhibit had produced both the Hiss specimens and the Baltimore documents.

... the defense argued that a different typist must have done the typing ...

And on and on it goes.

posted by Quiddity at 9/09/2004 02:15:00 PM

Simple, clear, devastating: (okay, maybe not devastating, but pretty bad none the less)

Via Mark A. R. Kleiman we learn about a finding by Max Sawicky that shows Cheney is talking nonsense. Here it is: (emp add)

The latest Congressional Budget Office report on the deficit shows a positive correction of about $56 billion (a lower deficit) from the January 2004 forecast. (Note: the new, revised level is still a record high in terms of absolute dollars.) "Dick" Cheney says this is a "direct result" of the tax cuts inspiring more economic growth than heretofore imagined.

The problem is that the change in the economic forecast for 2004 since January is for less real GDP growth, not more. The January forecast was for growth of 4.8 percent (p. xvii) this year. Now CBO says 4.5 percent (p. 24). So by "Dick" logic, this shows the tax cuts are not working.

The main difference in forecasts is that now more inflation is predicted -- an extra percentage point. One effect of inflation is somewhat higher tax revenues, because inflation pushes more people into the Alternative Minimum Tax.

posted by Quiddity at 9/08/2004 10:14:00 PM

The reddest part of a red state:

Over at the whitehouse.gov website we read about an "ask President Bush" event. This one took place yesterday in Sedalia, Missouri, and the focus was on small businesses. We thought this exchange was of interest:

THE PRESIDENT: We've got another person who saved money on her taxes: Ellyn Wilson, Thanks for coming, Ellyn. Tell us what you do, Ellyn. Interesting job she's got. Interesting jobs she's got.
MS. WILSON: Mr. President, I work three jobs. I'm a single mom, which is a full-time job, anyway.
THE PRESIDENT: Is that your daughter?
MS. WILSON: Yes, this is Hannah.
THE PRESIDENT: Listen to your mom. I'm still listening to mine. (Applause.) Most of the time. (Laughter.)
MS. WILSON: And this is my son, Caleb Wilson. He's eight.
THE PRESIDENT: Fantastic. What do you do, Mom?
MS. WILSON: I am a music teacher. This is my 14th year starting. That's my full-time position.
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you for teaching. (Applause.)
MS. WILSON: And I made a change this year, and I'm presently at Pettis County R-12 Dresden School District, one of the best schools in the state of Missouri.
THE PRESIDENT: That's good. She's a marketer. (Laughter.)
MS. WILSON: And my part-time job is out of my home. I'm a Mary Kay consultant, and I'm working my way up to a star recruiter, and working my way up in the business.
THE PRESIDENT: Running her own business. She's a soul [sic?] proprietor. Got her own business -- kind of the American way, isn't it? Started her business out of her own home. Keep going.
MS. WILSON: And I love to serve the Lord at what I do, and I'm church pianist at First Baptist Church, Sedalia, Missouri. (Applause.)
THE PRESIDENT: There you go. She saved $1,000 on tax relief. A single mom -- by the way, being a single mom in America is the toughest job in our country. (Applause.) It's incredibly hard work to be a single mom. The tax relief helps single moms -- $1,000.
MS. WILSON: And I got braces for my kids. It's helped a lot.
THE PRESIDENT: Let's see -- oh, yes. (Laughter.) Did you ever. (Laughter.)
MS. WILSON: With my Mary Kay supplies, as well. So it really helped out tremendous, and I'm very thankful.
THE PRESIDENT: Helped her small -- helped with the kids. She's doing her job as a mom, to take care of her kids. And then she's got a little business going. And that money helps. Someday you'll be driving that pink Cadillac. (Laughter and applause.) If they don't make the tax relief permanent, $300 goes out of her pocket. That's $300 she can use. Remember the tax relief, how it works? Not only did we reduce all rates, which helped everybody in our small businesses, we raised the child credit to $1,000, and we reduced the marriage penalty, so it ought to be encouraging marriage, not discouraging marriage. (Applause.)

We created a 10 percent bracket, which helps Ellen. In other words, we've just got to keep this in mind, our country's got to keep in mind, what tax relief has meant to working people, to people are trying to get ahead in life. This is a perfect example of a soul who is working hard to do her duty as a mom, and to realize her dreams as a small business owner. The tax relief has helped. I appreciate you coming.

I hope you get what I'm trying to say here. See, we can get people like me running for office, and we talk about numbers and this, that and the other. The most effective way to explain the effects of tax relief on our society is to ask people like Ellen come and tell you why tax relief was effective. I'm honored you're here, Ellen. Great job. Thank you.

MS. WILSON: Thank you so much. Thank you, Mr. President. (Applause.)

Some observations:

• Ms. Wilson was pre-selected and not called upon randomly. Note that Bush knew that she saved $1000 without her telling him.
  
  
• We congratulate Ms. Wilson on trying to get ahead, but selling Mary Kay cosmetics is not the same as a good paying job with benefits. Bush likes to say that his tax cuts are going to enable small businesses to revitalize this economy, but that's not true. In the case of Ms. Wilson, she will have more money to spend, but her business isn't really affected.
  
  
• Bush said "We created a 10 percent bracket, which helps Ellen." It's true that "The ten percent tax bracket has increased from the first $6,000 in taxable income to the first $7,000 for single filers and from the first $12,000 to the first $14,000 taxable income for married couples and qualifying widows/widowers." But, "The current ten percent bracket for head of household filers remains unchanged." And Ms. Wilson is presumably a head of household who didn't benefit from the tax cut - so what gives?
  
  Is this another example of a Bush misstatement? (It appears that Ms. Wilson only benefited from the child credit.)
  
  
• No matter how you slice it, Ms. Wilson isn't making much money. That Mary Kay gig is nowhere near a solid income stream.
  
  
• As a pitch to the red-staters, it was a pretty good choice: Mary Kay cosmetics, loves to serve the Lord, is the pianist for the First Baptist Church, "a perfect example of a soul who is working hard".

posted by Quiddity at 9/08/2004 07:11:00 PM

Right on schedule:

From our post of August 18:

... it appears that 20 days from now the total US casualties will have reached 1000 (1000 - 953 = 47 / 2.3 per-day = 20 days). Twenty days from now is September 8 - right in the middle of the week after the Republican convention ends.

Today's news: (ABC)

More Than 1,000 Military Deaths in Iraq

BAGHDAD, Iraq Sept. 7, 2004 — U.S. military deaths in the Iraq campaign passed 1,000 Tuesday, an Associated Press tally showed, as a spike in fighting with both Sunni and Shiite insurgents killed seven Americans in scattered clashes in the Baghdad area.

posted by Quiddity at 9/07/2004 02:08:00 PM

Bumper sticker:



posted by Quiddity at 9/07/2004 09:03:00 AM

Voter logic:

Wondering why Bush has high approval numbers with some voters? This Voice of America news item, Republican Voters Speak Out About Bush, Iraq War, should give you an idea: (emp add)

Scott Stearns
Erie, Pennsylvania
07 Sep 2004, 14:11 UTC

No issue more sharply divides American voters this election year than the war in Iraq. The immediacy of the threat of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction was the president's biggest justification for invading the country. Democratic challenger John Kerry says the failure so far to find any of those weapons means President Bush misled the country into war. President Bush says the world is better off without Saddam Hussein in power. Correspondent Scott Stearns has spent the last week covering the president on the campaign trail and asking Republican voters what they think about Mr. Bush when it comes to Iraq.

Bush: "I appreciate you all coming out. There's nothing better than taking a bus trip on a Saturday with your family. Nothing better than ending the bus trip in Erie, Pennsylvania."

Stearns: "Some critics of the president say that because we haven't yet found any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq that that was a mistake. What do you feel about that?"

Voter1: "Well, the intelligence said that they were there. And I remember watching television news reports with Colin Powell showing these trailers and things that the intelligence said that was there. And when they get there, they are not there. So where did they go if they were there?"

Voter2: "First of all, there were weapons. They are in parts unknown. They were there, and I believe what he did, he did with conviction."

Voter3: "I believe that there are things that will be found buried in the sand. And I think they are getting closer. And I believe that Saddam Hussein was such a devious person, a man who killed his own people, that it's time to rid the world of that type of pest."

Voter4: "I think I believe like him that there were weapons but they were hidden. And I believe they were hidden maybe in Syria."

Voter5: "Oh, I believe it was a mistake. I believe it was spin. I believe it was spin away from the economy, that diverted attention away from the economy. And I think that's why his popularity is so high right now because everybody is waving the American flag, but nobody is looking at the innocent loss of life over there right now. And it's going to continue."

Voter6: "There's a lot of evidence that proves that they did have them. We even have the sheets from Saddam Hussein saying that he did have them. So it's not an issue. I think they are misinformed. And it doesn't matter to me. That's not the only reason we were there anyway."

Voter7: "We got rid of Saddam Hussein anyway. And he was nothing but a bad dictator, and I think we are doing the right thing."

Voter8: "I believe we should have gone to war. We need to put to rest all the bad people in the world trying to attack us. So I'm glad we went to war."

Voter9: "Yeah, that maybe was a mistake to go there because there was supposedly weapons of mass destruction but they really weren't there. But look at what happened in that country. They are going to be a free country. And I think that means a lot to us here, and I hope it does to the Iraqi people too."

Voter10: "We need to stabilize it over there. It was just a time bomb waiting to happen."

Voter11: "The campaign is way too much focused on 9/11, and the war, and he's really trying to use that. And they should focus on other policies because in four years, hopefully we are going to have some other issues to deal with other than the war itself, and I'd like to see what he is going to do."

Voter12: "I don't think he made the connection between Iraq and nine-eleven. I do support the president, but that's one of his policies that I don't support. And I'm interested in it because I'm a supporter of the military, but I don't think he is using them for the correct reasons."

Voter13: "The people there are obviously living much better lives than the dictatorship before, so wasn't it worth it?"

Voter14: "I think he is a good commander-in-chief and he does an excellent job in that. I know that Kerry probably could be a good commander-in-chief too. And the question is: Do we want to change horses in the middle of the stream? And I think that is a big issue, so that is why I'm for Bush. I don't think we should right now."

For what it's worth, a substantial fraction of Republicans think that there were WMD, but that they are now hidden, spirited away to Syria, or yet-to-be-found. Doesn't matter what David Kay or the inspectors report. It's a given for these folks that Bush was telling the truth.

posted by Quiddity at 9/07/2004 08:40:00 AM

Dirt, mud, and more mud:

Well, it's come to this. Mark A. R. Kleiman has a post, Susan Estrich goes nuclear. where he says:

Bush's return to drinking is apparently common knowledge in DC, though it seems unlikely anyone will talk on the record.

But his post is pretty much a reproduction of Susan Estrich's column entitled Lies move Democrats to dig up dirt.

In the same vein, Digby has penned an entry, Diving Into The Mud, where he says:

Dirty, hate filled, testosterone fueled, phony political spectacle is what the public wants to buy. They are not going to turn off their car radios and TVs and suddenly reject the entertaining pageant they are enjoying so much. They will continue to assure pollsters that they hate all this negativity, but they will tune in to absorb the bloodlust and feel vicariously empowered by this show of masculine prowess. They want action. They will vote for the one who gives it to them.

And that elusive species, The Daily Brew, rolls out an essay, Throwing Mud, where it is written:

To beat Bush, John Kerry is going to have to go profoundly negative. And while a general consensus has been reached that the time has come to throw down the gauntlet, in my humble opinion, no one (at least no one that I have read) has put their finger on which attack will actually work. So let me repeat another observation I made three years ago.

Bush must be attacked for his chicken-shit response to the attacks of September 11.

As Richard Nixon once said, "Fasten your seatbelts!"

posted by Quiddity at 9/05/2004 04:29:00 PM

It was twenty-seven years ago today:

From Today in History:

In 1977, the U.S. launched the Voyager 1 spacecraft two weeks after launching its twin, Voyager 2.

Still going strong, according to JPL/NASA. We read:

At the outer limits of our solar system, a solar shock wave is about to overtake NASA's Voyager 1 spacecraft.

July 13, 2004: When Voyager 1 signals NASA, which it does almost every day, there's usually not much to report. The spacecraft is nearly 9 billion miles (14.5 billion km) from the sun, at the edge of our solar system. It's quiet out there, dark and uneventful.

Voyager 1, prepare for action.

A solar blast wave is heading for the spacecraft, and "it could arrive at any moment," says Ed Stone, project scientist for the Voyager mission at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Mega cool.


posted by Quiddity at 9/05/2004 10:49:00 AM

Over a year old:

Mark A. R. Kleiman posts the following:

Graham speaks out
Sen. Bob Graham's new book raises the Saudi-9/11 question, charging a cover-up by the White House.
I hope the press covers this, and that John Kerry starts to pick it up.

It's good that the issue be examined, but we remind our readers that it was a story one year ago. We posted on the topic, and diagrammed the connections, as shown below.




To be fair, there is something new from Graham: (emp add)

When the staff tried to conduct interviews in that investigation, and with an FBI informant, Abdussattar Shaikh, who also helped the eventual hijackers, they were blocked by the FBI and the administration, Graham wrote.

The administration and CIA also insisted that the details about the Saudi support network that benefited two hijackers be left out of the final congressional report, Graham complained.

Bush had concluded that ''a nation-state that had aided the terrorists should not be held publicly to account,'' Graham wrote. ``It was as if the president's loyalty lay more with Saudi Arabia than with America's safety.''

NOTE: This diagram is from the time when we had large images which affected the blog's dimensions (the width). Since July of this year, all new diagrams are restricted in size.

posted by Quiddity at 9/05/2004 09:08:00 AM