The Bush convention bounce killer: (no pun intended)

The Republican National Convention is set to begin on August 30. It will be over by Friday, September 3.

According to the Iraq Coalition Casualties website, there have been 953 soldiers that have died (combat & non-combat) as of this posting.

Before we go any further, let us be clear that we consider all these deaths to be a tragedy for the families involved. So this is not an exercise taken lightly.

However, we look at the figures and it appears that 20 days from now the total US casualties will have reached 1000 (1000 - 953 = 47 / 2.3 per-day = 20 days). Twenty days from now is September 8 - right in the middle of the week after the Republican convention ends.

You know how it is, round numbers are hooks for stories, and no doubt that when 1000 deaths is reached there will be a spate of them to that effect. Our guess is that it will be a real damper on whatever positive momentum Bush gained the previous week of the convention.

NOTE: Yes, September 11 will follow soon after but it's not clear that it will help Bush. If anything it might emphasise the contrast between fighting terrorists (a job still unfinished) and the 1000 casualties from fighting in Iraq.

posted by Quiddity at 8/19/2004 04:49:00 AM