Why we hesitate:

We are very, very, very, very, very slightly inclined to think that Kerry will win the presidential election. Why? Because every time we think, yes, Kerry has solid support in traditional Democratic strongholds and is making inroads into Bush country, we read something like this: (From TPM, quoting Charlie Cook) (emp add)

At this point, there remains 10 states that are too close to call: Florida with 27 electoral votes, Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).

Well guess what? Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin were the only states in the midwest to vote for Dukakis in 1988. (Ten entities went Democratic that year: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, --- big gap --- , Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, --- big gap ---, West Virginia, District of Columbia, New York, Massachusetts.) Now that was 16 years ago and nothing is static in politics, but if Charlie Cook puts those three states in the Tossup category, we can't feel confident that Kerry will win.



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posted by Quiddity at 8/18/2004 11:20:00 AM