Musings:

At this point in time we think events over the past months and years have begun to take on the dimensions that allow us to see how history will regard Bush's term as president. This is an exercise in prognostication - always fallible - but what the heck? Here are our thoughts:

• The Iraq war will be seen as a footnote to history. At least so far, it hasn't resulted in much good or bad from the perspective of the United States. (When we say bad, we mean sunken warships, massacres of troops, wholesale rioting in Iraq.)
  
  
• Bush will be blamed for ignoring warnings that lead up to the attacks on 9/11. Eight months in office is enough time to be responsible for defending the country. The datum: Most killed in an attack on the U.S. - is part of Bush's legacy and he knows it.
  
  
• Politically, Bush was beginning to lose his edge at the start of 2004 but he took a huge hit around April. That was when we were hearing about Abu Ghraib, Richard Clarke's book and testimony, the public 9/11 hearings, and the high troop casualty count that month. There were two issues that fed on each other: incompetence (Iraq/WMD/Abu Ghraib) and incompetence (9/11). Why have Bush's polls on Fighting Terrorism gone down? It's not because the Iraq adventure isn't working out perfectly. It's because the poor planning and leadership demonstrated in Iraq has lead to a revised assessment of Bush's performance around 9/11.

posted by Quiddity at 7/22/2004 04:41:00 AM