Complexity theory:

In a detailed report in the Asia Times, Why the US needs the Taliban, we read about a tug-of-war over the future of Afghanistan. Don't worry, nothing is likely to break out soon; the report covers the deep trends in the region. Still, it's something to pay attention to. The bottom line is this:

• Pakistan wants control of Afghanistan
• Iran, India, and Russia like the current (non-Pakistan friendly) government in Kabul
• The U.S. needs a friendly Pakistan, so it might allow an Islamabad-backed Pashtun group in power in Kabul
• That might mean a return (in some form) of the Taliban

Here is a rough diagram of the situation as described in the article:



UPDATE: On the heels of the Asia Times story, comes this from the Washington Post:

Afghan Political Violence on the Rise
Instability in South Grows as Pro-Taliban Fighters Attack Allies of U.S.-Led Forces

posted by Quiddity at 8/03/2003 09:43:00 AM