Sullivan "analyzes" Bush Administration claims about the war and finds nothing to get upset about. From his most recent
| Sullvian writes | what he is saying |
| I've been floating a few counter-factuals about this war in my head. | I've been thinking about different scenarios leading up to the war. |
| In particular, I'm thinking about what the Josh Marshalls and Joe Conasons (although Josh is in a different league of seriousness than Conason, of course) would have had the administration say just before the war. | |
| What if Cheney had gone on television and said: "Look, this is going to take months. Saddam's hardcore is highly trained, ruthless and will fight to the death." | What if Cheney presented a cautious, non-triumphalist assessment of the war's likely progress? |
| Wouldn't that have largely removed the chance - even if it were an outside one - of psyching out the Ba'ath leadership and possibly cracking the Saddamite machine at the outset? | Wouldn't that eliminate the slim chance of fooling the Iraqi leadership into misjudgments (and possibly surrender)? |
| Part of what the administration was trying to achieve, it seems to me, was a psychological coup against the Baghdad leadership. | I think it was part of the war plan to fool the Iraqi leadership with our braggadocio. |
| If they could out-psyche the Ba'athists, convince them they were doomed, we'd have had much higher chances of winning this quickly and well. | And if it worked, that would have made the task of invading Iraq easier for the U.S. |
| The problem, of course, was that the message designed for Saddam was also one heard by the domestic audience, and so was a set-up for disappointment. | As it turns out, the American public heard the bold, confident assessment as well. |
| The further problem was that if the leadership survived, they might also feel more confidence for making it through the first couple of weeks. | |
| But, again, that's only a problem if the British and American publics aren't grown-ups and can't deal with the uncertainties of war, and if we don't have the firepower to win anyway. | Which is a problem if they believed it. |
| But the publics are grown up ... | But they knew better. |
In other words, it's fine for the Administration to make wild assertions because the public is smart enought to know to dismiss them.
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