A threat to what neighbors?

country	military expenditures in billions (source: CIA World Factbook 2002)	other
Saudi Arabia	$18.300	(FY00)
Iran	$9.700	(FY00)
Israel	$8.866	(FY01)
Turkey	$8.100	(2002 est.)
Oman	$2.424	(FY01)
Kuwait	$1.967	note: Kuwait is changing its fiscal year; this figure is for July-March 2001; future budget years will be April-March annually
United Arab Emirates	$1.600	(FY00)
Iraq	$1.300	(FY00)
Syria	$0.921	(FY00 est.); note - based on official budget data that may understate actual spending
Jordan	$0.758	(FY01)
Qatar	$0.723	(FY00/01)
Bahrain	$0.526	(FY01)
Yemen	$0.482	(FY01)

Or in graphical form:



Looking at the chart above, something jumped out at us. Going into Iraq is about oil, but not in the way that most people think. Bush was correct when he said September 11 changed everything, but wrong when he asserted that it exposed the risk that Iraq would assist al Qaeda. No, the real discovery post-September 11 was the uncertain status of Saudi Arabia. Most of the hijackers came from there, bin Laden has designs on the nation, and if it goes fundamentalist-radical, then almost certainly there would be an oil crisis. Considering the fragile world economy in the wake of the late-90's bubble, an oil crisis could do serious damage. Also, what about all that money Saudia Arabia is spending on defense? There would be a real threat to the region if al Qaeda got their hands on it.

If Saudi Arabian oil is cut off, where does one go? Why not to an under-exploited, oil-rich country - like Iraq?

If Saudi Arabia goes radical-fundamentalist, who will be the U.S. proxy in the region? How about Iraq?

More and more it doesn't look like the reason for invading Iraq is because of the threat it poses. Instead, it appears to be insurance against losing Saudi Arabia. (And of course, that also melds nicely with neo-conservative thinking about "liberating" this or that country.)

posted by Quiddity at 2/04/2003 12:39:00 PM