Some thoughts about Iraq:

We have put on our cynic's hat, and have come to the following conclusions:

• Recent pressure by the Bush administration to get the most intrusive inspections program are designed, in part, to weaken Saddam's position. Once a strongman is perceived as having no power, pretenders to the throne are likely to emerge.
• Ari Fleischer's "one bullet" comment was an effort in that direction.
• If Saddam were to be toppled by an internal group in the next 30 days it would be of immense political value. That's why the tough talk is taking place now.
• The whole Iraq issue is politics. If it was such an urgent issue, then why did Bush take a month-long vacation?
• In military terms, an attack on Iraq will probably be similar to the operations against Grenada and Panama. A totally outmatched opponent quickly defeated due to American superior weaponry.
• There is a low tolerance for battlefield casualties. While troops may be sent overseas, they will only be used as a last resort. Air power will be the preferred approach. Everything will be targeted. Remember the bombing of the television station/transmitter in Belgrade on the grounds that it was a "propaganda machine"? The same will happen to Iraq. The goal will be to sow dissent among the Iraqi people, and it may work.
• Rebuilding Iraq: "Everybody" is saying that it will take plenty of time and lots of money. That might be the sensible or moral thing to do, but we predict that beyond a token amount of aid (probably in the form of loan guarantees to businesses), the current administration doesn't care much about a post-Saddam Iraq. After all, in 2001 Bush was content to abandon California to the tender mercies of Texas energy firms. Why should they give a damn about the people of Iraq? Also, there is the issue of money. It's too risky to the U.S. economy to spend money on Iraq, so it won't happen. And a post-Saddam Iraq, no matter how chaotic, will probably pump the same amount of oil as before. We predict that after Saddam is out, Bush will:
  • Say to the world, "We did our part, now you do yours."
  • Secure a few key areas (ports, refineries, oil fields) and leave the rest to the UN.
  • Use backchannels to keep Turkey and Iran out of the area.
• Claims by Democrats that invading Iraq would be costly will be shown to be incorrect, and will be used against them in 2004.

We still think that a move into Iraq has lot of opportunities to go bad, and that it's ill advised. Once war starts, all sorts of things can happen. But we believe the likely outcome is a fairly easy victory for Bush - and that that's the goal. Win something. After all, on the other issues - especially the economy - the administration doesn't seem interested, or able to cope with them.
posted by Quiddity at 10/06/2002 09:53:00 AM