Will this be an easy war?
We were struck by the following statements made by Bush last night
- Saddam Hussein and his sons must leave Iraq within 48 hours.
- It is not too late for the Iraqi military to act with honor and protect your country by permitting the peaceful entry of coalition forces ...
- Our forces will give Iraqi military units clear instructions on actions they can take to avoid being attacked and destroyed.
- I urge every member of the Iraqi military and intelligence services, if war comes, do not fight for a dying regime ...
- And all Iraqi military and civilian personnel should listen carefully to this warning. In any conflict, your fate will depend on your action. Do not destroy oil wells, a source of wealth that belongs to the Iraqi people. Do not obey any command to use weapons of mass destruction against anyone, including the Iraqi people. War crimes will be prosecuted. War criminals will be punished.
Now some of that is standard-issue talk, but we think that if the Iraqis do fight, it won't be be the cakewalk everybody is expecting. That's why Bush was promoting the notion of Saddam-in-exile and Iraqi troops throwing down their arms.