Sunday, November 03, 2002

Economics and politics:

Remember back in 2000 when a number of scholars predicted an easy win for Gore? They came to that conclusion based on a formula that tied economic performance (among other things) to election returns.

The formula was wrong.

Does that mean that economic issues are less salient these days? Seems likely. Thus, we are somewhat skeptical of those who think the recent economic news will cause a last-minute break towards Democrats. It might happen, and that's our hope, but we cannot but help thinking back to the failed prediction for 2000.


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