Shorter David Broder:
Ignore Iowa and only pay attention to New Hampshire, ecause:
- Independents can vote in the Granite State, reducing the chance that a strong liberal Democratic candidate emerges.
- Labor is weaker in New Hampshire, and you want to minimize their influence.
- Party activists (on both the left and right) are a significant factor in Iowa, and that means the establishment can't dictate the results.
And let's not forget the most important reason of all:
John McCain polls a lousy thrid place in Iowa, but leads in New Hampshire.