Smoothing it out:

If you take the numbers of coalition troops that have died in Iraq, you get the following bar chart (light blue):



And if you plot a 36-month moving average*, you get the red line. That's what Bush calls progress.

May already has 75 fatalities. If there are 85 for the month, the moving average will continue to rise.

* - 1 to 35 month moving average for the first 35 months.